Leading indicators are measurements that change over time and suggest future trends for important second-order results like population growth and economic development. Economists in particular are often looking for indicators that have been known historically to lead the overall economy. If unemployment goes down, for example, it is a good bet that shortly thereafter income will rise and the economy will improve. It’s for this very reason, then, that economists and Wall Street fund managers are always looking for newer and better leading indicators. But such indicators needn’t be limited to the economy: they can apply to technology and technical culture, too, which has its own feedback loop to economic development. My friend George Morton, who figured this all out, says that by knowing the right numbers to look at we can have a good idea what countries will be leading in technology — and presumably in economic development and power — in the years ahead. The measure George likes is the number of Cisco Certified Internetwork Experts or CCIEs.

The CCIE is Cisco’s top certification category and VERY hard to earn. Being a CCIE doesn’t mean you have Len Bozack on speed dial, but it might as well. Cisco products dominate the Internet and CCIEs are Cisco gurus, so if you are serious about the Internet as a nation you’ll have CCIEs hanging about, or that’s the theory. Conversely, if you just talk a good game as a country with technological aspirations, maybe you won’t have many CCIEs at all — maybe none. It’s one way to determine who the posers are.

The numbers are enlightening. Check out how the US stacks up…